Econometric Analysis of Export Led Growth in the Nigerian Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the role of export in the economic growth process of Nigeria with using the three sample periods of annual time series data, which are 1961 to 2013, 1970 to 2013 and 1981 to 2013 respectively. The variables for this period of 1961 to 2013 are GDP growth and exports/GDP ratio, the variables for this period of 1970 to 2013 are GDP growth, exports/GDP ratio, Imports/GDP ratio and the real interest rate and the variables for the last period of data are total exports, manufacturing GDP, agricultural GDP, manufacturing exports and agricultural exports respectively. The VAR Granger causality results for the first sample period show no causal relationship between exports and the GDP growth which illustrates that the two variables are independent of each other. The VAR results for the period of 1970 to 2013 show no causality between the variables under consideration. Following the results of the Granger causality test for this last period of 1981 to 2013, the results show no evidence of causality existing among the variables, which do not show evidence for the support for the export-led growth in the Nigerian economy. This study concluded that exports do not influence and cannot sustain economic growth in the Nigerian economy. The study recommended that an attempt should be made towards executing an economic policy that will strengthen the economic growth of Nigeria.