Assessing impact of climate change on the wheat production in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Conflicts between water supply and water demand are intensifying in irrigation districts along the Lower Yellow River, China, due to climate change and human activities. To ensure both adequate food supply and water resource sustainability in the region, this paper investigated the relationship between wheat yield and meteorological variables in 7 provinces within the Yellow River Basin. The key meteorological variables that influenced wheat yield were identified, and the regression functions between climate relevant wheat yield and these variables were established. Combining with the climate change scenarios in the future, the impact of climate change on crop yield were assessed. To cope with limited water resources in this region, it is necessary to properly irrigate crops based on soil water content and take full advantage of precipitation and surface runoff during the summer maize season.