The mechanism of delayed release in earthquake-induced avalanches

Abstract

Snow avalanches can be triggered by strong earthquakes. Most existing models assume that snow slab avalanches happen simultaneously during or immediately after their triggering. Therefore, they cannot explain the plausibility of delayed avalanches that are released minutes to hours after a quake. This paper establishes the basic mechanism of delays in earthquake-induced avalanche release using a novel analytical model that yields dynamics consistent with three documented cases, including two from Western Himalaya and one from central Italy. The mechanism arises from the interplay between creep, strain softening and strain-rate sensitivity of snow, which drive the growth of a basal shear fracture. Our model demonstrates that earthquake-triggered delayed avalanches are rare, yet possible, and could lead to significant damage, especially in long milder slopes. The generality of the model formulation opens a new approach for exploring many other problems related to natural slab avalanche release.