Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation

Author:

Dillon Michael B.1

Affiliation:

1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, PO BOX 808, L-103, Livermore, CA 94551, USA

Abstract

In the event of a single, low-yield nuclear detonation in a major urban area, rapidly providing adequate shelter to affected populations could save 10 000–100 000 individuals from a fatal exposure to fallout radiation. However, poorly sheltered individuals may remain at risk. Current guidance and prior studies are not consistent as to the timing and conditions under which poorly sheltered individuals should leave their shelters to evacuate or obtain better shelter. This study proposes methods to determine the optimal shelter time based on information potentially available following a nuclear detonation. For the case in which individuals move to an adequate shelter that can be reached within 15 min, individuals should stay in a poor-quality shelter for at most 30 min after the detonation. If adequate shelter is available nearby (within 5 min), then poorly sheltered individuals should immediately proceed to the better shelter.

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Engineering,General Mathematics

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Additional Considerations When Responding to a Nuclear Attack;Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications;2021

2. Flexible decision making in the wake of large scale nuclear emergencies: Long-term response;European Journal of Operational Research;2017-08

3. A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation;Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems;2016-03-17

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