Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population

Author:

LaRue Michelle12ORCID,Iles David34,Labrousse Sara145ORCID,Fretwell Peter6,Ortega David1,Devane Eileen4,Horstmann Isabella4,Viollat Lise4,Foster-Dyer Rose2ORCID,Le Bohec Céline78,Zitterbart Daniel49,Houstin Aymeric789,Richter Sebastian9,Winterl Alexander9,Wienecke Barbara10,Salas Leo11,Nixon Monique2,Barbraud Christophe12ORCID,Kooyman Gerald13,Ponganis Paul13,Ainley David14,Trathan Philip615,Jenouvrier Stephanie4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA

2. School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

3. Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada

4. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

5. Sorbonne Université, LOCEAN-IPSL, UMR 7159, 75005, Paris, France

6. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

7. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Strasbourg, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France

8. Département de Biologie Polaire, Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco City, Monaco

9. Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany

10. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Australia

11. Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA, USA

12. Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique – La Rochelle Université, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France

13. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA

14. HT Harvey and Associated, Los Gatos, CA, USA

15. Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

Abstract

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species’ range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) −26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was −1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = −3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Funder

Biological and Physical Sciences Division

World Wildlife Fund

Division of Polar Programs

Publisher

The Royal Society

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