Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments

Author:

Lemieux Audrée1ORCID,Colby Graham A.1,Poulain Alexandre J.1,Aris-Brosou Stéphane12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

The host spectrum of viruses is quite diverse, as they can sustainedly infect a few species to several phyla. When confronted with a new host, a virus may even infect it and transmit sustainably in this new host, a process called ‘viral spillover’. However, the risk of such events is difficult to quantify. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, we resorted to a metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake’s virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.

Funder

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Environmental Science,General Immunology and Microbiology,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Medicine

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