Models of foot-and-mouth disease

Abstract

During the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK, three very different models were used in an attempt to predict the disease dynamics and inform control measures. This was one of the first times that models had been used during an epidemic to support the decision-making process. It is probable that models will play a pivotal role in any future livestock epidemics, and it is therefore important that decision makers, veterinarians and farmers understand the uses and limitations of models. This review describes the utility of models in general before focusing on the three foot-and-mouth disease models used in 2001. Finally, the future of modelling is discussed, analysing the advances needed if models are to be successfully applied during any subsequent epidemics.