Affiliation:
1. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA
Abstract
The effects of anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N
2
O), carbon dioxide (CO
2
), methane (CH
4
) and the halocarbons on stratospheric ozone (O
3
) over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are isolated using a chemical model of the stratosphere. The future evolution of ozone will depend on each of these gases, with N
2
O and CO
2
probably playing the dominant roles as halocarbons return towards pre-industrial levels. There are nonlinear interactions between these gases that preclude unambiguously separating their effect on ozone. For example, the CH
4
increase during the twentieth century reduced the ozone losses owing to halocarbon increases, and the N
2
O chemical destruction of O
3
is buffered by CO
2
thermal effects in the middle stratosphere (by approx. 20% for the IPCC A1B/WMO A1 scenario over the time period 1900–2100). Nonetheless, N
2
O is expected to continue to be the largest anthropogenic emission of an O
3
-destroying compound in the foreseeable future. Reductions in anthropogenic N
2
O emissions provide a larger opportunity for reduction in future O
3
depletion than any of the remaining uncontrolled halocarbon emissions. It is also shown that 1980 levels of O
3
were affected by halocarbons, N
2
O, CO
2
and CH
4
, and thus may not be a good choice of a benchmark of O
3
recovery.
Subject
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Cited by
266 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献