Elevated substitution rates estimated from ancient DNA sequences

Abstract

Ancient DNA sequences are able to offer valuable insights into molecular evolutionary processes, which are not directly accessible via modern DNA. They are particularly suitable for the estimation of substitution rates because their ages provide calibrating information in phylogenetic analyses, circumventing the difficult task of choosing independent calibration points. The substitution rates obtained from such datasets have typically been high, falling between the rates estimated from pedigrees and species phylogenies. Many of these estimates have been made using a Bayesian phylogenetic method that explicitly accommodates heterochronous data. Stimulated by recent criticism of this method, we present a comprehensive simulation study that validates its performance. For datasets of moderate size, it produces accurate estimates of rates, while appearing robust to assumptions about demographic history. We then analyse a large collection of 749 ancient and 727 modern DNA sequences from 19 species of animals, plants and bacteria. Our new estimates confirm that the substitution rates estimated from ancient DNA sequences are elevated above long-term phylogenetic levels.