Improving performance of hurdle models using rare-event weighted logistic regression: an application to maternal mortality data

Abstract

In this paper, performance of hurdle models in rare events data is improved by modifying their binary component. The rare-event weighted logistic regression model is adopted in place of logistic regression to deal with class imbalance due to rare events. Poisson Hurdle Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (REWLR) and Negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) REWLR are developed as two-part models which use the REWLR model to estimate the probability of a positive count and a Poisson or NB zero-truncated count model to estimate non-zero counts. This research aimed to develop and assess the performance of the Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) Hurdle Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (REWLR) models, applied to simulated data with various degrees of zero inflation and to Nairobi county’s maternal mortality data. The study data on maternal mortality were pulled from JPHES. The data contain the number of maternal deaths, which is the outcome variable, and other obstetric and demographic factors recorded in MNCH facilities in Nairobi between October 2021 and January 2022. The models were also fit and evaluated based on simulated data with varying degrees of zero inflation. The obtained results are numerically validated and then discussed from both the mathematical and the maternal mortality perspective. Numerical simulations are also presented to give a more complete representation of the model dynamics. Results obtained suggest that NB Hurdle REWLR is the best performing model for zero inflated count data due to rare events.