Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef

Author:

Condie Scott A.12ORCID,Anthony Kenneth R. N.34,Babcock Russ C.5,Baird Mark E.1,Beeden Roger6,Fletcher Cameron S.7,Gorton Rebecca1,Harrison Daniel89,Hobday Alistair J.12,Plagányi Éva E.25,Westcott David A.7

Affiliation:

1. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

2. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

3. Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

4. School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

5. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

6. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

7. CSIRO Land and Water, Atherton, Queensland, Australia

8. National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia

9. Marine Studies Centre, School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades.

Funder

Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program

Australian Government's Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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