Optimizing targeted vaccination across cyber–physical networks: an empirically based mathematical simulation study

Author:

Mones Enys1ORCID,Stopczynski Arkadiusz12,Pentland Alex ‘Sandy’2,Hupert Nathaniel3,Lehmann Sune14

Affiliation:

1. Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

2. Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

3. Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

4. The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract

Targeted vaccination, whether to minimize the forward transmission of infectious diseases or their clinical impact, is one of the ‘holy grails’ of modern infectious disease outbreak response, yet it is difficult to achieve in practice due to the challenge of identifying optimal targets in real time. If interruption of disease transmission is the goal, targeting requires knowledge of underlying person-to-person contact networks. Digital communication networks may reflect not only virtual but also physical interactions that could result in disease transmission, but the precise overlap between these cyber and physical networks has never been empirically explored in real-life settings. Here, we study the digital communication activity of more than 500 individuals along with their person-to-person contacts at a 5-min temporal resolution. We then simulate different disease transmission scenarios on the person-to-person physical contact network to determine whether cyber communication networks can be harnessed to advance the goal of targeted vaccination for a disease spreading on the network of physical proximity. We show that individuals selected on the basis of their closeness centrality within cyber networks (what we call ‘cyber-directed vaccination’) can enhance vaccination campaigns against diseases with short-range (but not full-range) modes of transmission.

Funder

New York-Presbyterian Hospital

Villum Fonden

UCPH 2016

Det Frie Forskningsråd

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Biomedical Engineering,Biochemistry,Biomaterials,Bioengineering,Biophysics,Biotechnology

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