1. Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK
2. Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
3. MRC National Institute for Medical Research, The Ridgeway, Mill Hill, London NW7 1AA, UK