A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010

Author:

Reiner Robert C.12,Perkins T. Alex12,Barker Christopher M.134,Niu Tianchan15,Chaves Luis Fernando678,Ellis Alicia M.19,George Dylan B.110,Le Menach Arnaud11,Pulliam Juliet R. C.11213,Bisanzio Donal14,Buckee Caroline15,Chiyaka Christinah12,Cummings Derek A. T.116,Garcia Andres J.1217,Gatton Michelle L.118,Gething Peter W.19,Hartley David M.1520,Johnston Geoffrey16212223,Klein Eili Y.102425,Michael Edwin2627,Lindsay Steven W.12829,Lloyd Alun L.130,Pigott David M.19,Reisen William K.13,Ruktanonchai Nick1213,Singh Brajendra K.26,Tatem Andrew J.131,Kitron Uriel114,Hay Simon I.119,Scott Thomas W.12,Smith David L.1111621

Affiliation:

1. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA

2. Department of Entomology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

3. Center for Vectorborne Diseases, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

4. Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

5. Division of Integrated Biodefense, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC, USA

6. Graduate School of Environmental Sciences and Global Center of Excellence Program on Integrated Field Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

7. Programa de Investigación en Enfermedades Tropicales, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional, Heredia, Costa Rica

8. Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN) and Global Center of Excellence Program on Tropical and Emergent Infectious Diseases, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

9. The Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA

10. Department of Defense, Fort Detrick, MD, USA

11. Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, Washington, DC, USA

12. Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

13. Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

14. Department of Environmental Studies, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

15. Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA

16. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA

17. Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

18. Malaria Drug Resistance and Chemotherapy Laboratory, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Herston, Queensland, Australia

19. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford, UK

20. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC, USA

21. Malaria Research Institute, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA

22. School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

23. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA

24. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

25. Center for Advanced Modeling, Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA

26. Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

27. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK

28. Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

29. School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK

30. Department of Mathematics and Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA

31. Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK

Abstract

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Biomedical Engineering,Biochemistry,Biomaterials,Bioengineering,Biophysics,Biotechnology

Reference76 articles.

1. Epidemiological basis of malaria control;Macdonald G;Bull. World Health Organ.,1956

2. Theory of the eradication of malaria;Macdonald G;Bull. World Health Organ.,1956

3. The malaria parasite rate and interruption of transmission;Macdonald G;Bull. World Health Organ.,1964

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