Instability and predictability in coupled atmosphere-ocean models

Abstract

We review simple instabilities in linear theories of coupled atmosphere-ocean models in both bounded and unbounded ocean basins and describe the mechanisms for instability in these linear theories. We then review nonlinear coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and relate the instabilities seen in linear theory to the fully nonlinear ENSO simulations. We present a general discussion of the relation between instability and predictability in the ENSO problem and review some recent work on predictability in coupled models. Finally, we comment on some recent predictions in light of our discussion of predictability.