No evidence that a transmissible cancer has shifted from emergence to endemism in Tasmanian devils

Abstract

Tasmanian devils are endangered by a transmissible cancer known as Tasmanian devil facial tumour 1 (DFT1). A 2020 study by Patton et al . ( Science 370 , eabb9772 (doi: 10.1126/science.abb9772 )) used genome data from DFT1 tumours to produce a dated phylogenetic tree for this transmissible cancer lineage, and thence, using phylodynamics models, to estimate its epidemiological parameters and predict its future trajectory. It concluded that the effective reproduction number for DFT1 had declined to a value of one, and that the disease had shifted from emergence to endemism. We show that the study is based on erroneous mutation calls and flawed methodology, and that its conclusions cannot be substantiated.