Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate–vegetation feedback model

Abstract

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth’s vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate–vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate–vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate–vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth’s vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate–vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.