Thermodynamic efficiency of contagions: a statistical mechanical analysis of the SIS epidemic model

Abstract

We present a novel approach to the study of epidemics on networks as thermodynamic phenomena, quantifying the thermodynamic efficiency of contagions, considered as distributed computational processes. Modelling SIS dynamics on a contact network statistical-mechanically, we follow the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle to obtain steady-state distributions and derive, under certain assumptions, relevant thermodynamic quantities both analytically and numerically. In particular, we obtain closed-form solutions for some cases, while interpreting key epidemic variables, such as the reproductive ratio of a SIS model, in a statistical mechanical setting. On the other hand, we consider configuration and free entropy, as well as the Fisher information, in the epidemiological context. This allowed us to identify criticality and distinct phases of epidemic processes. For each of the considered thermodynamic quantities, we compare the analytical solutions informed by the MaxEnt principle with the numerical estimates for SIS epidemics simulated on Watts–Strogatz random graphs.