The resurgence of tuberculosis in Russia

Author:

Shilova Margarita V.1,Dye Christopher2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Epidemiology and Antituberculosis Care Organization, Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology, I. M. Setchenov Medical Academy, 4 Dostoevsky Street, 101478 Moscow, Russian Federation

2. Communicable Diseases, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland

Abstract

This paper documents and attempts to explain the epidemic spread of tuberculosis (TB) in Russia during the 1990s. After several decades of decline, the notification rate of all new TB cases among permanent residents increased by 7.5% per year from 1991–1999 and the death rate by 11% per year. Growth was quickest from 1993–1995 but increased again after the economic crisis of August 1998. Approximately 120 000 new cases and 30 000 deaths were reported in 1999. Case detection and cure rates have fallen in Russia since the mid–1980s; the fall has been accompanied by a higher frequency of severe disease among cases, and higher death and case fatality rates. With a mathematical model describing the deterioration in case finding and cure rates we could replicate the average rate of increase in incidence 1991–1999 but not the precise timing of the observed changes. Other factors that probably helped to shape the observed rise in caseload include enhanced transmission due to the mixing of prison and civilian populations, an increase in susceptibility to disease, and changes in the proportion of cases detected by surveillance. Although our explanation for the resurgence of TB is incomplete, we have identified a set of measures that can be implemented now to cut transmission, incidence and deaths.

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

Reference20 articles.

1. com.atypon.pdfplus.internal.model.plusxml.impl.AuthorGroup@72b68021 1999 Management of new tuberculosis patients. PhD thesis Moscow Medical Academy. [In Russian.]

2. com.atypon.pdfplus.internal.model.plusxml.impl.AuthorGroup@7c716007 2000 Epidemiology of tuberculosis. In Tuberculosis a comprehensive international approach (ed. L. B. Reichman & E. S. Hersh¢eld) pp. 129^156. New York: Marcel Dekker Inc.

3. com.atypon.pdfplus.internal.model.plusxml.impl.AuthorGroup@784eeb51 1998 Prospects for worldwide tuberculosis control under the WHO DOTS strategy. The Lancet 352 1886^1891.

4. com.atypon.pdfplus.internal.model.plusxml.impl.AuthorGroup@3d4c6a3c 1999 Recrudescent tuberculosis in the Russian Federation. In The global impact of drug-resistant tuberculosis (ed. P. Farmer M. Becerra & J. Y. Kim) pp. 40^ 83. Boston: Harvard Medical School/Open Society Institute.

5. com.atypon.pdfplus.internal.model.plusxml.impl.AuthorGroup@7bbd523c 1999 Human development report 1999. Russian Federation. Moscow: United Nations Development Programme Human Rights Publishers.

Cited by 56 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3