A unifying theory for two-dimensional spatial redistribution kernels with applications in population spread modelling

Abstract

When building models to explain the dispersal patterns of organisms, ecologists often use an isotropic redistribution kernel to represent the distribution of movement distances based on phenomenological observations or biological considerations of the underlying physical movement mechanism. The Gaussian, two-dimensional (2D) Laplace and Bessel kernels are common choices for 2D space. All three are special (or limiting) cases of a kernel family, the Whittle–Matérn–Yasuda (WMY), first derived by Yasuda from an assumption of 2D Fickian diffusion with gamma-distributed settling times. We provide a novel derivation of this kernel family, using the simpler assumption of constant settling hazard, by means of a non-Fickian 2D diffusion equation representing movements through heterogeneous 2D media having a fractal structure. Our derivation reveals connections among a number of established redistribution kernels, unifying them under a single, flexible modelling framework. We demonstrate improvements in predictive performance in an established model for the spread of the mountain pine beetle upon replacing the Gaussian kernel by the Whittle–Matérn–Yasuda, and report similar results for a novel approximation, the product-Whittle–Matérn–Yasuda, that substantially speeds computations in applications to large datasets.