Future climates: Markov blankets and active inference in the biosphere

Abstract

We formalize the Gaia hypothesis about the Earth climate system using advances in theoretical biology based on the minimization of variational free energy. This amounts to the claim that non-equilibrium steady-state dynamics—that underwrite our climate—depend on the Earth system possessing a Markov blanket. Our formalization rests on how the metabolic rates of the biosphere (understood as Markov blanket's internal states) change with respect to solar radiation at the Earth's surface (i.e. external states), through the changes in greenhouse and albedo effects (i.e. active states) and ocean-driven global temperature changes (i.e. sensory states). Describing the interaction between the metabolic rates and solar radiation as climatic states—in a Markov blanket—amounts to describing the dynamics of the internal states as actively inferring external states. This underwrites climatic non-equilibrium steady-state through free energy minimization and thus a form of planetary autopoiesis.