Actuarial methods of mortality analysis; adaptation to changes in the age and cause pattern

Abstract

‘The death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference. In deciding whether the mortality is greater than it should b e .. .all the resources of statistical science have to be brought into requisition’ (Farr 1874). Introduction While the question of survival is not always uppermost in our minds it is never far away. The more provident amongst us, at least, are concerned to know their expectations of survival in order to take action both to reduce the chance of dying before their ‘time’ and to guard against the economic effects of this contingency. It is no accident that in this year we have celebrated not only the tercentenary of the publication of Graunt’s Observations but also the bicentenary of life assurance in this country. The history of mortality measurement reflects ever more refined approaches to the two objectives: (1) the study of biological and social factors in mortality as a basis for preventive medicine or social policy; (2) the close observation of mortality trends as a basis for economic provision for the future either in individual financial affairs or in social security schemes, or in administrative planning.