Modelling global terrestrial vegetation–climate interaction

Abstract

By coupling an atmospheric general circulation model asynchronously with an equilibrium vegetation model, manifold equilibrium solutions of the atmosphere–biosphere system have been explored. It is found that under present–day conditions of the Earth's orbital parameters and sea–surface temperatures, two stable equilibria of vegetation patterns are possible: one corresponding to present–day sparse vegetation in the Sahel, the second solution yielding savannah which extends far into the south–western part of the Sahara. A similar picture is obtained for conditions during the last glacial maximum (21 000 years before present (BP)). For the mid–Holocene (6000 years BP), however, the model finds only one solution: the green Sahara. We suggest that this intransitive behaviour of the atmosphere–biosphere is related to a westward shift of the Hadley–Walker circulation. A conceptual model of atmosphere–vegetation dynamics is used to interpret the bifurcation as well as its change in terms of stability theory.