Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it

Abstract

After the widespread prevalence of COVID-19 at the end of 2022 in Mainland China, a major concern is when will the second major outbreak occur and with what prevalence and fatality rates will it be associated with, as peoples' immunity from natural infection subsides. To address this, we established an age-structured model considering vaccine and infection-derived immunity, fitted an immunity-waning curve, and calibrated the model using the epidemic and vaccination data from Hong Kong in 2022. The model and the situation of the first major epidemic in Mainland China were then used to predict the prevalence rate, fatality rate and peak time of the second wave. In addition, the controlling effects of different vaccination strategies on the second major outbreak are discussed. Finally, a characterization indicator for the level of population immunity was provided. We conclude that if the prevalence of the first major epidemic was 80%, the prevalence rate of the second major outbreak would be about 37.64%, and the peak time would have been July 2 2023. Strengthening vaccination can effectively delay the peak of the second wave of the epidemic and reduce the prevalence.