A heuristic for the distribution of point counts for random curves over a finite field

Author:

Achter Jeffrey D.1ORCID,Erman Daniel2,Kedlaya Kiran S.3ORCID,Wood Melanie Matchett24,Zureick-Brown David5

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

2. Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

3. Department of Mathematics, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA

4. American Institute of Mathematics, San Jose, CA, USA

5. Department of Mathematics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

Abstract

How many rational points are there on a random algebraic curve of large genus g over a given finite field ? We propose a heuristic for this question motivated by a (now proven) conjecture of Mumford on the cohomology of moduli spaces of curves; this heuristic suggests a Poisson distribution with mean q +1+1/( q −1). We prove a weaker version of this statement in which g and q tend to infinity, with q much larger than g .

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Engineering,General Mathematics

Reference34 articles.

1. Ellenberg JS Venkatesh A& Westerland C. 2009 Homological stability for Hurwitz spaces and the Cohen-Lenstra conjecture over function fields. (http://arxiv.org/abs/0912.0325).

2. How many rational points does a random curve have?

3. The fluctuations in the number of points on a hyperelliptic curve over a finite field

4. Statistics for Traces of Cyclic Trigonal Curves over Finite Fields

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