Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Author:

Fowler Hayley J.1ORCID,Ali Haider1,Allan Richard P.2,Ban Nikolina3,Barbero Renaud4ORCID,Berg Peter5,Blenkinsop Stephen1,Cabi Nalan Senol6,Chan Steven17,Dale Murray8ORCID,Dunn Robert J. H.7ORCID,Ekström Marie9,Evans Jason P.10ORCID,Fosser Giorgia11,Golding Brian12,Guerreiro Selma B.1,Hegerl Gabriele C.13,Kahraman Abdullah17ORCID,Kendon Elizabeth J.7ORCID,Lenderink Geert14ORCID,Lewis Elizabeth1,Li Xiaofeng1,O'Gorman Paul A.15ORCID,Orr Harriet G.16ORCID,Peat Katy L.116,Prein Andreas F.17ORCID,Pritchard David1,Schär Christoph18,Sharma Ashish19ORCID,Stott Peter A.720,Villalobos-Herrera Roberto121,Villarini Gabriele22ORCID,Wasko Conrad23ORCID,Wehner Michael F.24ORCID,Westra Seth25,Whitford Anna1

Affiliation:

1. School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

2. Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading, Reading, UK

3. Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

4. National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France

5. Hydrology Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

6. Willis Research Network (WRN), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), London, UK

7. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

8. JBA Consulting, UK

9. School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, UK

10. Climate Change Research Centre and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

11. Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, Pavia, Italy

12. Met Office, Exeter, UK

13. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

14. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands

15. Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

16. Environment Agency, Horizon House, Bristol, UK

17. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), CO, USA

18. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

19. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

20. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

21. School of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Costa Rica, Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, San José, Costa Rica

22. IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA

23. Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

24. Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, San Francisco, USA

25. School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Abstract

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Funder

National Science Foundation

European Commission

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Natural Environment Research Council

Royal Society

FP7 Ideas: European Research Council

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Engineering,General Mathematics

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