Factors influencing the commercialization of inertial fusion energy

Abstract

Managing the IFE pathway to fusion electricity will involve management of commericalization scope, schedule, cost and risk. The technology pathway to economical fusion power comprises the commercialization scope. Industry assumes commercialization risk in fielding its own pre-pilot plant research programme for this compact-fusion pathway without the benefit of a federally coordinated IFE research and development programme. The cost of commercializing the mass-production of inexpensive targets and insisting on high reliability, availability, maintainability and inspectability has a major impact on the economics of commercializing fusion power plants. Schedule vulnerability for inertial fusion energy arises from the sensitivity of time-based roadmap stages to uncertainties in the pace of scientific understanding and technology development, as well as to unexpected and inexplicable changes of the budgeting process. Rather than rely on a time-based roadmap, a milestone-based roadmap is maximally appropriate, especially for industry and investors who are particularly well-suited to taking the risks associated with reaching the target milestones provided by the government. Milestones must be identified and optimally sequenced and the necessary resources must be delineated. Progress on the above factors, since the outcomes of recent U.S., U.K. and EUROfusion roadmapping exercises were released, are reported. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 2)’.