Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

Author:

Read Jonathan M.1ORCID,Bridgen Jessica R. E.1ORCID,Cummings Derek A. T.2,Ho Antonia3ORCID,Jewell Chris P.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4AT, UK

2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

3. Medical Research Council - University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK

Abstract

Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

Funder

Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Lancaster University

Wellcome Trust

Medical Research Council

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

Reference44 articles.

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