A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

Author:

Lenton Timothy M.1ORCID,Buxton Joshua E.1ORCID,Armstrong McKay David I.12ORCID,Abrams Jesse F.13ORCID,Boulton Chris A.1ORCID,Lees Kirsten14ORCID,Powell Thomas W. R.1,Boers Niklas156,Cunliffe Andrew M.1ORCID,Dakos Vasilis7ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK

2. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

3. Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK

4. Environmental Sustainability Research Centre, University of Derby, Derby DE22 1GB, UK

5. School of Engineering and Design, Earth System Modelling, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany

6. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

7. ISEM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France

Abstract

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems—loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Funder

European Research Council

Alan Turing Institute

Leverhulme Trust

European Union Horizon 2020

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

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