Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Author:

Reich Nicholas G.12,Shrestha Sourya34,King Aaron A.3456,Rohani Pejman346,Lessler Justin2,Kalayanarooj Siripen7,Yoon In-Kyu8,Gibbons Robert V.8,Burke Donald S.9,Cummings Derek A. T.2

Affiliation:

1. Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01002, USA

2. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA

3. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

4. Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

5. Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

6. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA

7. Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand

8. Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand

9. University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA

Abstract

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between serotypes are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infection with dengue provides substantial short-term cross-protection against other serotypes (approx. 1–3 years). This is the first quantitative evidence that short-term cross-protection exists since human experimental infection studies performed in the 1950s. These findings will impact strategies for designing dengue vaccine studies, future multi-strain modelling efforts, and our understanding of evolutionary pressures in multi-strain disease systems.

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Biomedical Engineering,Biochemistry,Biomaterials,Bioengineering,Biophysics,Biotechnology

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