Analysis of informativeness of features of classification of dangerous weather events based on radar observation results

Abstract

One of the crucial factors affecting the safety and regularity of state and civil aviation flights is the meteorological situation. The European territory of Russia is most characterized by dangerous meteorological phenomena associated with cumulonimbus clouds: shower, thunderstorms, hail, accompanied by high atmospheric turbulence. Currently, meteorological radar stations are an indispensable source of information about the weather situation for air transport. The criteria for the classification of meteorological phenomena used in modern radar stations are formed for each event separately and are based on knowledge only about the altitude distribution of radar reflectivity and air temperature, despite the fact that radar data assess the wind characteristics of the atmosphere. It is shown that optimization of the classification criteria for the mentioned meteorological phenomena should be realized by generalization of the criteria and their construction in accordance with the theory of statistical hypothesis distinction, as well as by additional use of information on atmospheric turbulence. Based on the analysis of radar signals reflected from the meteorological events of shower, thunderstorm, and hail, probability distributions of reflectivity and specific dissipation rate of turbulent energy were obtained. Statistical analysis of probability distribution densities was carried out for: the maximum value of reflectivity Zmax, its dependence on height H(Zmax), as well as the maximum specific dissipation rate of turbulent energy EDRmax and the value H(EDRmax). The classification criterion based on the maximum probability functional was chosen to determine the structure of classification algorithms and decision rules. At the same time under the acceptable confidence is accepted the value of the probability of correct classification not lower than 0.8. For the accepted criterion the decision thresholds are constructed and the complete matrices of classification probabilities are calculated. The results of calculations showed that the worst informativeness in the classification of dangerous meteorological events of cumulonimbus cloudiness have parameters H(Zmax), H(EDRmax). Parameters Zmax, EDRmax have greater separating ability, but even for them the confidence of classification is unacceptable. In the article to increase the confidence of classification the joint use of features in the form of multivariate probability distribution densities of information parameters was applied. The best results are achieved when three p(Zmax,H(Zmax),EDRmax) and four p(Zmax,H(Zmax),EDRmax,H(EDRmax)) features are used. In the probability matrices for these cases, the maximum and acceptable at 0.8 level of probabilities of correct classification are achieved. Thus, the expansion of the feature space due to atmospheric turbulence is justified in the problem under consideration. These results will be refined with increasing observation time and will vary for different climatic zones. In general, the decision thresholds for classifying dangerous meteorological events of cumulonimbus cloudiness should be adaptive.