Demographic Policy in Russia: Performance Evaluation

Abstract

   One of the reasons for the heavy hindering of the socio-economic development of modern Russia – is a new protracted wave of depopulation. In this regard, it is relevant and practically significant to analyze basic problems in the strategic management of demographic development and impartially assess the effectiveness of the tasks solved in this area, primarily in the field of birth rate growth. The article focuses on reviewing the core regulatory document in the field of demography – the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025. A number of its imperfections admitted at the development stage are identified, and directions for improving the document are proposed. The article assesses the dynamics of several core target demographic indicators and attempts to identify problems and factors affecting the birth rate in the country. The correlations assessment confirmed the importance of social support measures and regional maternity capital for achieving the increase in the birth rate, which is essential for overcoming depopulation processes in society. A serious barrier to demographic development has been identified, caused by the widespread practice of postponing childbearing, which has demonstrated stability in the younger generation, regardless of the self-assessment of their standard of living. Against this background, the transformation of the fertility age model was determined – the modal age of mothers for fifteen years has shifted by more than five years. There is a positive confirmation of the connection between the intention of young people to marry and their desire to have a child, which seems essential for family well-being and forms the prerequisites for further demographic development, based on the calculated Pearson and Chuprov's mutual contingency coefficients.