Methods of Multivariate Statistical Analysis in the Study of the Efficiency of Initiative Budgeting at the Regional Level

Abstract

The paper presents a methodology of statistical analysis to assess efficiency of initiative budgeting at the regional level, which is one of the most urgent areas for improvement of the mechanism for managing socio-economic development of territories. The introductory part of the article explains the relevance of applying mathematical and statistical methods of analysis to improve the efficiency of initiative budgeting in the regions, and also describes theoretical and methodological provisions and information sources implemented in the author's own methodological studies designed to assess the efficiency of initiative budgeting on the example of the Stavropol Territory – pilot region for the implementation of the Local Initiatives Support Program (LISP). While analyzing structural and dynamic relationships of indicators associated with financing and results of LISP implementation, the authors applied two versions of cluster analysis:– clustering of municipal units of the studied region by the values of indicators of financing and LISP performance, ensuring the allocation of statistically homogeneous groups of administrative and territorial entities;– clustering of indicators characterizing the volume of funding and LISP performance at the municipal level, which gave an idea of the multi-level interdependence of these indicators and was taken into account when building multi-factor models of the effectiveness of initiative budgeting programs in the region.The article concludes that the indicators of infrastructure development using LISP funds are very important from the standpoint of socio-economic development of the territories, but are dependent on the living standards of the population, which provides the necessary degree of public initiative for «inclusion» of the LISP mechanism. In addition, the identified and assessed patterns, although they are common for the considered pilot region for the implementation of LISP, have specific manifestations in certain groups of municipalities, which requires finer targeted “tuning” of LISP by substantiating its projects to obtain socio-economic results, most relevant to each municipality.