Weather Impact on Passenger Flow of Rail Transit Lines

Abstract

Passenger flow prediction is important for the planning, design and decision-making of urban rail transit lines. Weather is an important factor that affects the passenger flow of rail transit line by changing the travel mode choice of urban residents. A number of previous researches focused on analyzing the effects of   weather (e.g. rain, snow, and temperature) on public transport ridership, but the effects on rail transit line yet remain largely unexplored This study aims to explore the influence of weather on ridership of urban rail transit lines, taking Chengdu rail transit line 1 and line 2 as examples. Linear regression method was used to develop models for estimating the daily passenger flow of different rail transit lines under different weather conditions. The results show that for Chengdu rail transit line 1, the daily ridership rate of rail transit increases with increasing temperature. While, for Chengdu rail transit line 2, the daily ridership rate of rail transit decreases with increasing wind power. The research findings can provide effective strategies to rail transit operators to deal with the fluctuation in daily passenger flow.