DIFFERENTIAL URBANISATION IN MALAYSIA, 1980-2010

Abstract

In the early 1970s, urbanisation shifted towards counterurbanisation in most developed countries. In contrast, there is little evidence that developing countries will experience counterurbanisation due to the complexity of their historical, economic, and social conditions. To examine the transition process, Geyer and Kontuly (1993) introduced differential urbanisation theory to explain the concentration and deconcentration of populations in urban systems (from urbanisation to polarisation reversal to counterurbanisation). Most studies have applied this theory in developed country settings, but few have done so for developing countries and none have done so in the Malaysian context. This paper tested the theory in the Malaysian setting to consider the extent to which the theoretical assumptions are supported or challenged. In addition, compared to previous papers, this paper focuses far more on the nature of migration flows leading to urbanisation in terms of the relative contributions of net migration and natural increase to population change, as well as origin-destination migration flows in total and according to age structures. The results show that natural increase, rather than migration flows, was the dominant cause of urbanisation in all settlement types. This was due to the population momentum effect of high fertility levels, primarily after the Second World War, which resulted in the birth of a large number of females who later grew to childbearing age. Malaysia experienced the second stage of urbanisation (Intermediate Primate City) after 1980 but had shifted towards the final stage (Advanced Primate City) by 2000. This analysis of three decades (1980-2010), however, shows clear evidence of urbanisation but no evidence of polarisation reversal or counterurbanisation. Due to the continuous rapid urban development and growth in the largest city, the capital metropolitan area, and if the current migration trends persist in the future, Malaysia may never experience polarisation reversal or counterurbanisation.