Prediction Results for the Strongest Earthquakes in Southern Turkey on February 6, 2023

Abstract

On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes struck southern central Turkey, nin hours apart. The ground shaking from these earthquakes even swept over a significant part of northwestern Syria. In this paper, we consider the locations of the epicenters of these earthquake relative to the prediction of М ≥ 6.5 earthquake epicenters in Anatolia and adjacent regions, which was made in 1973 by I.M. Gelfand, V.I. Keilis-Borok and their colleagues using the Kora-3 pattern recognition algorithm based on morphostructural zoning data. We also present the results of early detection of periods with an increased probability of the strongest earthquakes as determined by the medium-term prediction algorithm for M8 earthquakes. It is found that the epicenters of the February 6, 2023 earthquakes occurred in a knot identified in 1973 as potentially earthquake-prone for М ≥ 6.5, and both events occurred within the spatial and temporal boundaries of the alert area diagnosed by the M8 algorithm in July 2021.