Predicting the Parameters of the Orientation of the Earth in Problems of Navigation Taking into Account the Phenomenon of the Development of Irregularity in the Earth’s Rotation

Abstract

This article discusses the application of a previously proposed [1] methodology for predicting the Earth’s orientation parameters (EOPs) that provides high accuracy as a result of optimizing a special procedure of processing historical data using the least-mean-squares method. The results of investigating the accuracy characteristics of the obtained EOP estimations are presented in relation with a predictive task in the interval from 2019 to 2022, when, for the first time in the history of observing the Earth’s daily rotation, a change was recorded in the difference trend between Universal Time and Coordinated Universal Time was recorded, caused by the length of day decreasing. The influence of the length of the day trend changing and related problems on the accuracy of EOP prediction in various navigation tasks using classical polynomials describing EOP evolution is discussed. A comparative analysis of the EOP prediction made by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service for a similar time period is carried out.