Presidential elections in Ecuador: progress, analysis, results

Abstract

In mid-October 2023, the electoral cycle ended in Ecuador. Its results were the election of the youngest president in the country's history, center-right Daniel Noboa. With a difference of less than four percent, Noboa managed to defeat her opponent, ‘correist’ Luisa Gonzalez. The parliamentary elections demonstrated that today none of the political forces can propose a program supported by the major part of society, and therefore none of the factions received an absolute parliamentary majority. This made three influential forces – the Civil Revolution, the Social Christian Party and the ADN presidential party – to create a situational coalition to solve the primary problems in the country: reducing the high level of violence and providing employment for the population. However, if this coalition falls apart, there is a good chance that President Noboa will repeat the political fate of his predecessor. The very conduct of this election campaign became the implementation in the political field of articles 138 and 140 known as muerte cruzada (‘cross death’) implementation in the political field, meaning the mechanism for president impeaching and simultaneously dissolving Parliament, after which early general elections are called. The election campaign took place under conditions of a state of emergency declared in the country on the eve of the first round of elections due to the murder of one of the presidential candidates. The use of the historical-comparative method in the article allows us to compare the political landscape around the previous and new Ecuadorian leaders and identify the institutional political structures features. And the historical-systemic method allows us to analyze the causes of political turbulence and Ecuadorian society polarization, and conflict-consensual development relations between the president and parliament and to predict political steps of the new president.