Modeling the socio-economic development of Russia using big data and data from field experiments

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study the prospects of socio-economic development of Russia from the point of view of transition to economic autarky. The study includes a cluster analysis of trends and patterns of socio-economic development of Russia, as well as neighboring countries (CIS). As a comparison base, data were used on countries that have passed (South Korea and Japan) or are passing (Iran) through a full-scale experiment of economic autarky with varying degrees of success. Statistically processed big data reflected in the Countries' Prosperity Index (Legatum Prosperity Index) by the end of 2021 were used as the information base of the study. The study also conducted a simulation of the socio-economic development of Russia, taking into account the accumulated potential, based on a taxonomic method related to the group of economic and mathematical methods of decision-making on a set of attributes (Multiple Attribute Decision Making, MADM). The results of the study show that Russia does not have the necessary development potential to switch to successful models of economic autarky, which were implemented in South Korea and Japan at the time. Russia is capable of further implementing an inertial model of socio-economic development, and is also capable of transitioning to an economic autarky of the Iranian type. The same conclusion applies equally to the countries of the near abroad (CIS). The results obtained can be used as an information base for decision-making in the field of public administration and regulation of socio-economic and socio-political processes.