Agent-based model “Intellectual Russia”: Model construction and initial population analysis

Abstract

In recent years forecasting with agent-based modeling has become very popular. This is due to a significant increase in computing power and as a result the possibility of conducting a large number of experiments. Agent-based modeling is based on the creation of decentralized agents and the study of their behavior which determines the behavior of the entire system as a whole. This article describes the developing of agent-based model, including information about the creation of initial population of human agents (that simulates the Russian regions’ population) and algorithms of their actions (that form the basis for their autonomous behavior). Each human agent of the initial population gets his own individual characteristics including the level of satisfaction and the level of labor  potential. All Russian regions are characterized by aggregate indicators of human agents living in its territory, as well as a number of permanent exogenous indicators. The algorithms of action described in this article should determine internal migration processes and the structure of employees by type of economic activity. This will allow predicting the level of labor potential of employees in each industry in the region. The model creates the initial population of human agents using official statistical data and also form the aggregated data on characteristics of regions and industries, that are analyzed and visualized in the article