Situational modeling of trajectories of regions’ economic complexity

Abstract

. An increase in the economic complexity of the region can contribute to an increase in the level of material well-being of the population. Therefore, the growth of the economic complexity of the structure of the regional economy should be considered as one of the criteria for evaluating solutions that contribute to diversification. An increase in the output of one sector in a region may lead to a change in the structure of strong sectors of its economy and the assessment of its economic complexity. It is important to take into account that the structures of strong sectors in other regions may change at the same time. The paper presents the conditions under which such changes happen. Using these results, a comparative analysis of the trajectories of assessments of the regions economic complexity based on two approaches was carried out: the choice of a sector or type of economic activity in the region for development to a strong level that ensures maximum growth of the region’s economic complexity; the choice of a sector or type of economic activity that has the highest assessment of economic complexity. The trajectories of assessments of the regions economic complexity, constructed in two different ways, should be considered as alternatives for comparison with the trajectories obtained on the basis of expert choice of the direction of diversification. The results of regression analysis are presented, indicating the possibility of forecasting the index of the regions economic complexity by sectors using the index of the regions economic complexity by types of economic activity, the first and second main components of the structure of the economy by types of economic activity.