Ways to Implement a United Triad Regional Monitoring of Forest Ecosystems at the Present Stage Global Warming

Abstract

The program provisions on the geosystem monitoring of forests in connection with modern climate changes, put forward earlier by the author, are being developed. The search strategy is presented in the form of an experimental geo-ecological analysis (using the example of the forest ecosystems of the Volga River basin), with the implementation of the complete monitoring triad state—forecast—management, according to the Israel–Gerasimov’s concept. The theoretical and scientific-methodical foundations of geosystem monitoring are considered, the methods of basic and predictive empirical-statistical modeling of the functional and structural characteristics of forest communities developed by the author are presented. An integrated landscape-ecological approach to monitoring is presented by the analysis and forecast of climate-genic changes in three groups of invariant indicators of the structural and functional organization of forest biogeosystems: 1) numerical parameters characterizing the tightness of inter-component links (as an indicator of the territorial integrity of the geo(eco-)system); 2) primary bio-productivity as the main indicator of the biological cycle; 3) index of labile (phytocoenotic) stability of geo(eco-)systems as integral indicators of their ecological reserve. A working algorithm for geosystem monitoring of forests is described, which characterizes a successive change in the stages of observation, forecasting and regulation, with the identification of mitigation and adaptation effects on the carbon balances of forest ecosystems.