Retrospective Prediction of the Location and Intensity of Two Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Iran And India

Abstract

The paper presents the results of mathematical modeling of the stress-strain state of the epicentral zone before and after the strong earthquakes Mw = 6.4 of June 22, 2002 in the north-west of Iran in the region Qazvin and 26 January 2001 in India with M = 6.9. The method of modeling of the stress-strain state of the block elastic-isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by the system of faults under the influence of the external field of tectonic stresses was used, boundary conditions were set according to seismological data. It is shown that at a certain ratio between the main stresses the epicenters of strong cow earthquakes are localized in the area of high concentration of stress intensity. The development of aftershock process is caused by stress release caused by a new break, and the emerging clusters of aftershocks spatially correlate with the zone of released intensity of stresses. It is assumed that the tectonic rupture propagates in the direction of the zones of high intensity of stresses. The actual correlation between the rupture length and the earthquake magnitude from the accumulated elastic energy and its possible realization under given structural and tectonic conditions is shown.