Catch up and overtake − China against USA

Abstract

According to the World Bank in 2016. China’s total GDP has reached the level of the United States, and in 2022. exceeded by 19,2%. But as for relative characteristics, for example, per capita GDP, in 2022. in China it was only 28.1% of the US level. With such a correlation of key socio-economic indicators, the issue of a country with number 1 status in the world acquires special interest. The main objective of this article is to identify and evaluate the processes of convergence of per capita GDP indicators of the USA and China, and try to predict their relative position in the long term. Calculations are carried out on a classical, but still relevant, model foundation. An important feature of the approach used is the consideration of exclusively investment parameters as factors of GDP growth. If the retrospective dynamics are prolonged, the leveling off of the per capita GDP of the USA and China is estimated to occur by the mid-2040s. It is also shown that in the American economy, as such, there are most likely no prerequisites that could prevent the contraction of the indicators under consideration already in the visible future. The actual pace of their convergence is determined by the state of affairs in the Chinese economy.