The new political crisis in Northern Ireland

Abstract

In Northern Ireland, after the 2022 local parliamentary elections, the two leading regional parties - the Unionists (DUP) and the Irish Nationalists (Sinn Féin) - failed to form an autonomous government. The article examines the causes of the political crisis in the region and presents an analysis of the model of consocial democracy according to the Belfast Agreement 1998. The political system of dual power, which requires the mandatory representation of religious communities (Catholics and Protestants) in local authorities, has repeatedly created the preconditions for long-term conflicts. The Unionists use the Northern Ireland Protocol after Brexit as its main pretext to put pressure on the central government and lower Sinn Féin's political influence. Divisions between two parties could disrupt the peaceful life in Ulster established in accordance with the Belfast Agreement, and lead to an increase in local separatism. A forecast is given that in the event of a long shutdown of the work of the regional parliament and the autonomous government, Northern Ireland may face severe economic consequences against the backdrop of the global energy crisis and the growing recession in the United Kingdom.