The initial geographical spread of host-vector and carrier-borne epidemics

Abstract

The deterministic and stochastic models developed by Bartlett (1956) to describe the initial spatial spread of an epidemic such as measles are extended to host-vector and carrier-borne epidemics such as malaria and typhoid in which more than one type of individual is involved. If the epidemic does not die out, then the behaviour predicted by the deterministic model and an examination of the mean distributions in the stochastic model is a wave of infection spreading out from the initial source of infection.