Limiting results for carrier-borne epidemics

Abstract

In this article we examine the behavior of Mm(τ), the number of susceptibles remaining uninfected at time τ in a carrier-borne epidemic as the initial number of susceptibles m tends to infinity for fixed initial number of carriers n. We show that as m → ∞ the proportion of susceptibles process {Mm(τ)/m : ≧ 0} converges weakly to a limiting process. The limiting process has sample functions almost surely of the form exp (– h(τ)), where the form of h(τ) is determined by the removal times of the carriers.