The effects of temperature on human fertility

Author:

Lam David A.1,Miron Jeffrey A.2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109

2. Department of Economics, Boston University

Abstract

Abstract Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Reference28 articles.

1. Seasonality of Fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh;Becker;Journal of Biological Science,1981

2. Seasonal Patterns of Births and Conception throughout the World,”;Becker,1991

3. Seasonal Patterns of Reproduction in Matlab, Bangladesh;Becker;Population Studies,1986

4. Seasonal Variation in Human Reproduction: Environmental Factors;Bronson;Quarterly Review of Biology,1995

5. Socioeconomic and Seasonal Variations in Births: A Replication;Chaudhury;Social Biology,1972

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