A Multistate Model of Fecundability and Sterility

Author:

Wood James W.1,Holman Darryl J.1,Yashin Anatoli I.2,Peterson Raymond J.3,Weinstein Maxine4,Chang Ming-Cheng5

Affiliation:

1. Population Research Institute and Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

2. Centre for Health and Social Policy, Odense University, Odense DK-5000, Denmark

3. Department of Anthropology and Graduate Program in Genetics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

4. Department of Demography, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057

5. Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning, Taichung 400, Taiwan Republic of China

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops a multistate hazards model for estimating fecundability and sterility from data on waiting times to conception. Important features of the model include separate sterile and nonsterile states, a distinction between preexisting sterility and sterility that begins after initiation of exposure, and log-normally distributed fecundability among nonsterile couples. Application of the model to data on first birth intervals from Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and the Amish shows that heterogeneity in fecundability is statistically significant at most ages, but that preexisting sterility and new sterility are unimportant before age 40. These results suggest that sterility may not be an important determinant of natural fertility until later reproductive ages.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Reference41 articles.

1. An Assessment of Data Quality in the Demographic and Health Surveys;Arnold,1991

2. Epidemiology of Infertility;Barad;Infertility and Reproductive Medicine Clinics of North America,1991

3. Residuals for Relative Risk Regression;Barlow;Biometrika,1988

4. The Estimation of Natural Sterility;Barrett;Genus,1986

5. An Estimate of the Natural Fecundability Ratio Curve;Bendel;Social Biology,1978

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