Cohort, age, and period effects upon the employment of white females: Evidence for 1957–1968

Abstract

Abstract The net effects of birth cohort, age, and period upon the employment of white women, 1957–1968, are estimated by a regression analysis of data from the Social Security Administration’s continuous work history file. By conceptualizing period-specific effects as those associated with the business cycle, we avoid multicollinearity and succeed in performing an analysis faithful to the cohort concerns usual in fertility analysis and to the macroeconomic concerns usual in employment studies. The age pattern of employment and the pattern of intercohort employment change are examined in some detail. The long-run (cohort) trend of increasing white female employment is compared with the estimated (short-run) effects attributable to the business cycle, and it is found that, while both are significant, the former exerted a stronger effect in the 1957–1968 period.